Trading Day · 2026-05-25
NVDA blowout Q1-FY27 ($81.6B rev, +85% YoY, 25x dividend hike, $80B buyback) validates AI spend narrative; QQQ heavyweight tailwind; DXY weakness supports tech multiples
Iran deal progress → oil -5% → inflation relief; NVDA $80B buyback + 85% YoY rev growth confirms AI capex intact; DXY ~99 weak supports multinationals; three-day weekend pent-up risk-on flow
Record Q1-FY27 results: $81.6B rev +85% YoY, $80B buyback, 25x dividend increase. Data center demand structural. Buyback = floor support
NVDA data-center demand read-through validates Azure AI cloud growth. DXY weak helps international. Warsh as new Fed Chair: bond market uncertainty but AI megacap less rate-sensitive
Holding $77K+ through entire holiday weekend with no equity market support. Crypto trading 24/7 = leading indicator. Iran deal progress = macro risk-on = crypto bid
Rides NVDA AI coattails but no standalone catalyst. NVDA dominance could crowd out AMD narrative short-term
DXY ~99 helps international revenue translation. No near-term catalyst. Defensive positioning into PCE Thursday
ETH ~$2,104 down slightly WoW. Underperforming BTC. SEC tokenized stock exemption delay (INN) a headwind for ETH narrative. Needs BTC leadership to move
Small caps most rate-sensitive. Warsh as hawkish Fed Chair = fewer cuts priced = headwind for IWM. Iran deal bullish for economy but 10Y at 4.57% remains drag
No TSLA-specific catalyst. Oil -5% mixed signal for EV (cheaper gas = less EV urgency vs. macro bullish). Macro-driven; Elon headline risk elevated
| Asset | Predicted | Actual | Result | Conf | Move | Lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | neutral | ungradeable | too_early | 50 | — | Grade at Tue May 26 open. |
| AMD | neutral | ungradeable | too_early | 52 | — | Grade at Tue May 26 open. NVDA sell-the-news may drag AI semis — watch for AMD gap down Tuesday. |
| ETH | neutral | slight_bullish | hit | 48 | — | ETH $2,124 on holiday session — slight +1% from $2,104 base. Neutral call correct; not leading BTC. 48 confidence appropriate for low-conviction neutral. |
| SPY | bullish | ungradeable | too_early | 62 | — | Memorial Day = US equities closed; grade at Tue May 26 open vs Fri May 23 close. Holiday session limits same-day scoring for equity predictions. |
| MSFT | bullish | ungradeable | too_early | 57 | — | Grade at Tue May 26 open. NVDA sell-the-news weakens AI cloud read-through thesis. |
| BTC | bullish | bullish | partial | 55 | — | BTC holding $77,507 as of 9:45 AM EDT on holiday — above $74K invalidation. 24/7 trading lets crypto serve as leading indicator during US holiday. Thesis (risk-on + Iran deal progress) tracking. Final grade needs Tue equity session confirmation. |
| NVDA | bullish | down | miss_early_signal | 58 | — | SELL-THE-NEWS INVALIDATION ALREADY TRIGGERED before prediction was made. NVDA closed $215.33 on Fri May 22, down 1.90% despite blowout earnings ($81.6B +85% YoY). Prediction was made at 14:30 CT May 25 KNOWING Friday's close. Bullish call with 58 confidence appears miscalibrated — invalidation case was already live. Grade final at Tue open. |
| QQQ | bullish | ungradeable | too_early | 65 | — | Grade at Tue May 26 open. Last confirmed close: QQQ $717.54 on Thu May 22 +0.42%. |
| TSLA | neutral | ungradeable | too_early | 45 | — | Grade at Tue May 26 open. Neutral with 45 confidence = appropriate humility given no catalyst. |