Trading Day · 2026-05-31

SpaceX S-1 filed May 20 2026, targeting $1.75-2T valuation (~$75B raise, largest IPO ever). Starlink $11.4B rev (+$4.4B op profit) = only profitable unit. GAAP net loss -$4.94B (xAI/X drag -$6.35B). ~100x trailing P/S vs fundamental fair value ~$400-700B. Musk 85.1% voting via 10x Class B, controlled-company exemption = near-zero minority rights. xAI+X merged into SpaceX Feb 2026 — forced to buy a money-losing social+AI conglomerate with the rocket co. Day-1 pop likely +15-25% fueled by retail frenzy (30% allocation) and hype, then fades into Dec lockup expiry. Best entry = post-lockup dip Dec 2026, not day-1 pop.